Objective: The first purpose of the article and the underlying research is to identify trends in the development of the knowledge-intensive services (KIS) sector in selected EU countries and to create forecasts of its further growth. The second purpose is to recognize factors that may help or inhibit Poland from drawing upon the experiences of the analysed countries. Research Design & Methods: We use time-series trend forecasting. Forecasts of the development of the KIS sector in the EU are constructed basing on available time series (2008 2017) using the least square method (LSM). Findings: Knowledge-intensive services are developing with various speed in the EU countries, but an existence of a ‘glass ceiling’ in the context of a possible level of development can be noted. This ‘glass ceiling’ is situated on different levels for different groups of countries (higher for the most innovative ones, lower for others). While Poland is on the path of convergence with highly-developed EU countries in respect to the growth of knowledge-intensive services sector, several country-specific factors hinder its ability to enter the path of convergence with the innovation-leaders, thus most probably preventing it from ever reaching the highest ‘glass ceiling.’ Implications & Recommendations: The innovation policy should not only be oriented to support R&D activities but also support the development of KIS. Contribution & Value Added: The added value of the article lies in filling the gap in the literature concerning the analysed issue. The findings may serve as suggestions for creating innovation policy. Article type: research article

中文翻译：

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欧盟知识密集型服务的发展：对选定国家的预测和对波兰的影响

目标：本文和基础研究的第一个目的是确定选定欧盟国家知识密集型服务 (KIS) 部门的发展趋势，并预测其进一步增长。第二个目的是识别可能有助于或阻碍波兰借鉴所分析国家经验的因素。研究设计和方法：我们使用时间序列趋势预测。对欧盟 KIS 部门发展的预测是基于可用的时间序列（2008 年 2017 年）使用最小二乘法 (LSM) 构建的。调查结果：知识密集型服务在欧盟国家以不同的速度发展，但可以注意到在可能的发展水平的背景下存在“玻璃天花板”。这种“玻璃天花板”在不同国家组中处于不同的水平（最具创新性的国家更高，其他国家更低）。虽然波兰在知识密集型服务业的增长方面正处于与高度发达的欧盟国家趋同的道路上，但一些国家特定的因素阻碍了其与创新领导者趋同的能力，因此很可能阻止它从未达到最高的“玻璃天花板”。启示和建议：创新政策不仅要支持研发活动，还要支持 KIS 的发展。贡献和附加值：文章的附加值在于填补了有关所分析问题的文献空白。调查结果可作为制定创新政策的建议。文章类型：