This paper develops a dynamic option-based model for the valuation of rental and other similarly structured lease contracts under the conditions of uncertainty that is then solved by statistical simulation (Monte Carlo). The motivation, research background and methodology of the paper follow up on a previously published general firm-theoretical approach by the author, who takes an interdisciplinary approach to apply the model in this particular context. It is shown that due to the path dependency of the problem, Monte Carlo is an appropriate and practical tool for analyzing embedded options, incident in most rental and lease relationships, and can be used as a major determinant of their value. In addition to its basic valuation function, exploitable for business acquisition or lease contracting purposes, this Monte Carlo model is very well disposed for various microeconomic analyses. Accordingly, we demonstrate the particular impacts and sensitivities of contractual party-specific, as well as environmental, factors including parties’ transaction costs, information asymmetry and enforceability of legal claims.

中文翻译：

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使用统计模拟评估合同资产

本文开发了一种基于动态期权的模型，用于在不确定性条件下对租赁和其他类似结构的租赁合同进行估值，然后通过统计模拟（蒙特卡洛）求解。该论文的动机、研究背景和方法遵循作者先前发表的一般公司理论方法，作者采用跨学科方法将模型应用于此特定背景。结果表明，由于问题的路径依赖性，蒙特卡罗是分析嵌入期权、大多数租赁和租赁关系中的事件的合适且实用的工具，并可用作其价值的主要决定因素。除了其基本的估值功能，可用于业务收购或租赁合同目的，这个蒙特卡罗模型非常适合各种微观经济分析。因此，我们证明了合同方特定以及环境因素的特殊影响和敏感性，包括各方的交易成本、信息不对称和法律索赔的可执行性。