This paper tackles the problem of scheduling construction projects considering the influence of delay risks. In the actual body of knowledge, several methods have been proposed to handle this problem, starting from the Project Evaluation and Review Technique to advanced simulation models. However, this investigation proposes a novel integration of one methodology with some approaches already existing in the literature related to Monte Carlo Simulation scheduling techniques as seen from the perspective of a practitioner. The research began with a literature review of both schedule risks and Monte Carlo based scheduling models for construction projects. Based on this, the methodology was designed with the constant participation of experts in the construction industry. As result of this, a comprehensive and practical methodology was constructed. Therefore, a new mathematical structure for the simulation model within the methodology was formulated in which a new concept for each risk defined as “potential impact” was used. Moreover, the simulation model is based on the judgment of experts and methods of the known literature such as the explicit model of the occurrence probability of the risks and the activity-risk factor matrix. Then, to validate the tool, the proposed methodology was applied using the information of an already constructed construction project of a public university of Colombia. The obtained results were a confidence-based forecast of the end date of the project and a quantitative importance measure of the modelled risks. These results were compared against the real history of the project since it was found an excellent performance of the proposed methodology. To sum up, the research process described above supports the validity of the proposed methodology.

中文翻译：

---

考虑延迟风险潜在影响的基于仿真的工程项目调度方法

本文考虑了延误风险的影响，解决了建设工程进度计划的问题。在实际知识中，从项目评估和审查技术到高级仿真模型，已经提出了几种方法来解决此问题。但是，这项研究提出了一种方法的新颖集成，从实践者的角度来看，该方法已经与蒙特卡罗模拟调度技术相关的文献中已有一些方法。该研究始于对进度风险和基于蒙特卡洛的建筑项目进度模型的文献综述。基于此，在建筑行业专家的不断参与下设计了该方法。结果，构建了一种全面而实用的方法。因此，为该方法论中的仿真模型制定了新的数学结构，其中针对每个风险使用了定义为“潜在影响”的新概念。此外，模拟模型是基于专家的判断和已知文献的方法，例如风险发生概率的显式模型和活动风险因子矩阵。然后，为了验证该工具，使用哥伦比亚一所公立大学已经建设的建设项目的信息，采用了所提出的方法。获得的结果是对项目结束日期的基于信心的预测，以及对建模风险的定量重要性度量。将这些结果与项目的真实历史进行了比较，因为发现了所提出方法的出色性能。总结一下，