This paper aims to investigate the co-movement between credit growth and gross domestic product (GDP) growth in Turkey over the period January 2004–October 2019. By taking into account alternative credit decomposition and the variations over time and across different frequencies using the wavelet analysis, the results show that: i) GDP growth highly synchronizes with credit growth compared to other financial variables such as stock exchange, bonds, and exchange rate; ii) There is a high correlation between commercial loan growth and capital formation, whereas a relatively weak one is observed between consumer loans and consumption; iii) Co-movement stemming from Turkish Lira (TL) credits to GDP growth is stronger than foreign exchange (FX) credits where the latter is significant until 2015; iv) Public and domestic private banks are the main drivers of economic activity while the foreign banks are following them. By showing the differential coherence of varied types of credit on GDP growth, we specify that shocks to different credit types are crucial to analyze business cycles. For policymakers, this result implies that the dynamics of different credit types are crucial to analyze the impacts of credit cycles on economic activity.

中文翻译：

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土耳其的信用分解和经济活动：基于小波的方法

本文旨在研究 2004 年 1 月至 2019 年 10 月期间土耳其信贷增长与国内生产总值 (GDP) 增长之间的联动关系。分析，结果表明：i) 与其他金融变量（如证券交易所、债券和汇率）相比，GDP 增长与信贷增长高度同步；ii) 商业贷款增长与资本形成之间存在高度相关性，而消费贷款与消费之间的相关性相对较弱；iii) 土耳其里拉 (TL) 信贷对 GDP 增长的联动性强于外汇 (FX) 信贷，后者在 2015 年之前都很重要；iv) 公共和国内私人银行是经济活动的主要驱动力，而外国银行则紧随其后。通过展示不同类型信贷对 GDP 增长的差异一致性，我们指出对不同信贷类型的冲击对于分析商业周期至关重要。对于政策制定者而言，这一结果意味着不同信贷类型的动态对于分析信贷周期对经济活动的影响至关重要。