Abstract The aim of this paper is to find out whether there is exuberance in regional house prices in Turkey. For this purpose, we analyze real hedonic house prices and price to rent ratios countrywide as well as for 26 geographic regions at the NUTS2 level from January 2010 to January 2019. We perform the right-tailed unit root testing procedures developed by Phillips et al. (2015) and Phillips and Shi (2018) and use their real time date-stamping strategy to determine periods of explosiveness and implosion. Our empirical findings indicate that there were exuberance episodes in house prices in Turkey for multiple periods, where an important contributor to these dynamics was the largest housing market, Istanbul. We also detect exuberance in some other regions, particularly in the neighboring NUTS2 regions of Istanbul and in Izmir after around 2014. However, we find out that explosive price behavior turned into implosion in many regions starting from 2018.

中文翻译：

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检测土耳其区域房价繁荣和内爆的分析

摘要 本文旨在了解土耳其地区房价是否存在繁荣。为此，我们分析了 2010 年 1 月至 2019 年 1 月 NUTS2 级别的全国以及 26 个地理区域的真实享乐房价和房价租金比。我们执行了由 Phillips 等人开发的右尾单位根测试程序。(2015) 和 Phillips and Shi (2018) 并使用他们的实时日期戳策略来确定爆炸和内爆的时期。我们的实证结果表明，土耳其的房价在多个时期都出现了繁荣时期，其中最大的房地产市场伊斯坦布尔是造成这些动态的重要因素。我们还在其他一些地区发现了繁荣，特别是在 2014 年左右之后伊斯坦布尔和伊兹密尔的邻近 NUTS2 地区。