Abstract Following competing theories, the paper brings the determinants of the Serbian and Romanian current account dynamics with policy implications. The research sample consists of quarterly time series data over the period 2004q1–2017q2 and 2007q1-2017q4 for the cases of Serbian and the Romanian case, respectively. The estimates from the state space model with time-varying parameters (TVP) approach suggest that role of domestic demand is significant in both cases even though more prominent in case of Serbia. Marshall-Lerner conditions were fulfilled in case of Serbia while not in the Romanian case. The effects of money supply on the current account is found to be in line with the monetary approach in case of Romania while in the Serbian case the effect of an increase in the money supply is positive. Consequently, to resolve the issue of the current account deficit the research findings suggest the country-specific policy mix for each country.

中文翻译：

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塞尔维亚和罗马尼亚案例中的经常账户决定因素：时变参数法

摘要遵循竞争理论，本文提出了塞尔维亚和罗马尼亚经常账户动态的决定因素以及政策含义。该研究样本包括塞尔维亚和罗马尼亚案例分别在2004q1–2017q2和2007q1-2017q4期间的季度时间序列数据。使用时变参数（TVP）方法的状态空间模型的估计表明，在两种情况下，尽管在塞尔维亚情况下，内需的作用都很重要。塞尔维亚的情况满足了马歇尔-勒纳的条件，而罗马尼亚的情况则没有。在罗马尼亚的情况下，货币供应对经常账户的影响与货币方法一致，而在塞尔维亚的情况下，货币供应增加的影响为正。所以，