Abstract This paper explores the size of the informal economy in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) over the period 1998- 2016, based on an indirect method of measurement known as the MIMIC approach (Multiple Input Multiple Causes). As the underlying determinants of the informal economy in BiH we include tax burden, the level of unemployment, the size of the agricultural sector and the level of government subsidies. We estimate that the average size of the informal economy for the observed period was 34% of GDP, with the largest percentage in 1998 (43%) and the smallest in 2009 and 2016 (30%). There is a modest decreasing trend in the size of the informal economy over time. Our model identifies two structural brakes over the observed period. The first is positive and is linked to the introduction of the value added tax in 2006 (a decrease in 2007-2009 follows). The second captures a short-run negative effect of the latest global economic crisis in 2009 (an increase between 2010-2011). To further asses these results and check their consistency with available primary data, we investigate the size of the undeclared work, assess tax morality and the additional income of families coming from informal sector. These indicators provide consistent results with those of the MIMIC approach.

中文翻译：

---

波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那的非正规经济-实证研究

摘要本文基于一种称为MIMIC方法（多输入多原因）的间接测量方法，探讨了1998-2016年期间波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那（BiH）的非正规经济规模。作为波黑非正规经济的基本决定因素，我们包括税收负担，失业水平，农业部门规模和政府补贴水平。我们估计，观察期内非正规经济的平均规模为GDP的34％，其中最大的比例是1998年（43％），最小的是2009年和2016年（30％）。随着时间的流逝，非正规经济规模呈小幅下降趋势。我们的模型确定了观察期内的两个结构性制动器。首先是积极的，并且与2006年增值税的引入有关（随后是2007-2009年的减少）。第二个报告反映了2009年最新的全球经济危机的短期负面影响（2010-2011年之间有所增加）。为了进一步评估这些结果并检查它们与可用的主要数据的一致性，我们调查了未申报工作的规模，评估了税收道德和来自非正规部门的家庭的额外收入。这些指标与MIMIC方法的结果一致。评估税收道德和非正规部门家庭的额外收入。这些指标与MIMIC方法的结果一致。评估税收道德和非正规部门家庭的额外收入。这些指标与MIMIC方法的结果一致。