Abstract The direction of the causality relationship between public expenditures and economic growth is one of the most controversial issues of the literature, which also causes great disagreements in the design process of economic policies. There are two approaches to this subject, which are opposite each other and called “Wagner’s Law” and “Keynesian Hypothesis”. This paper aims to examine the validity of Wagner’s law and Keynesian proposition in Turkey using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model over the period of 1998-2016. The findings supported the “Keynesian Hypothesis”, which advocates a one-way causality relationship from public spending to national output. More specifically, the results of the study showed that the effect of public expenditures on economic growth was positive in the short term and negative in the long term. From an economic policy standpoint, it can be argued that policymakers can promote Turkish economic growth through expansionary fiscal policies in the short run.

中文翻译：

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检验瓦格纳定律与凯恩斯假设的有效性：来自土耳其经济的证据

摘要 公共支出与经济增长的因果关系走向是文献中争议最大的问题之一，这在经济政策的设计过程中也引起了很大的分歧。对这个问题有两种方法，它们是对立的，称为“瓦格纳定律”和“凯恩斯假说”。本文旨在使用自回归分布滞后 (ARDL) 模型在 1998-2016 年期间检验瓦格纳定律和凯恩斯主义命题在土耳其的有效性。研究结果支持“凯恩斯假说”，该假说主张从公共支出到国家产出之间存在单向因果关系。更具体地说，研究结果表明，公共支出对经济增长的影响在短期内是正的，在长期内是负的。