Abstract This study explores economic interdependence in Mercosur by examining common trends and common cycles among key macro-variables representing both the real and financial sectors of the economy. The serial correlation common features test reveals that the key macroeconomic variables (real output, investment, and intra-regional trade) share common trends in the long run suggesting that macroeconomic interdependence in the Mercosur economies is strong. The exchange rates demonstrate co-movement in the long run as they share a single common trend. These finding suggests that these economies cannot swing away from long-run equilibrium for an extended duration; they will be brought together by their common trends. Similarly, each variable under consideration shares common cycles lending support to the notion of short-run synchronous movement. The trend-cycle decomposition results reveal that the cyclical movements of real output and trade are synchronized with a high degree of positive correlations. Our overall findings thus provide justification and optimism for deeper economic integration among Mercosur countries.

中文翻译：

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南共市的区域经济一体化：房地产和金融部门的作用

摘要本研究通过考察代表经济实体和金融部门的关键宏观变量之间的共同趋势和共同周期，探索了南共市的经济相互依存关系。序列相关共同特征检验表明，长期而言，关键的宏观经济变量（实际产出，投资和区域内贸易）具有共同趋势，这表明南共市经济体的宏观经济相互依存性强。从长远来看，汇率表现出共同运动，因为它们具有一个共同的趋势。这些发现表明，这些经济体不能在较长时间内摆脱长期均衡。他们将通过共同的趋势聚集在一起。同样，所考虑的每个变量都具有共同的周期，从而为短期同步运动的概念提供了支持。趋势周期分解结果表明，实际产出和贸易的周期性运动与高度的正相关性同步。因此，我们的总体发现为南方共同市场国家之间更深层次的经济融合提供了理由和乐观。