Abstract Banking systems in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) have grown notably over the past decades due to benign macroeconomic, regulatory and financial trends. Nonetheless, downside risks remain elevated by structural issues, commodity price fluctuations, reversal of capital flows and spill-over effects from external shocks in a manner similar to the Central East and South East European (CESEE) countries. In the light of the 2008–2009 Global Financial Crisis, great attention has been given to understanding the causes of banking instability with most of the research focusing on advanced economies and, to a lesser extent, large emerging markets while little attention has been paid to the bank-based financial sectors of Sub-Saharan Africa. Furthermore, there is scarcity of studies aiming at knowledge-sharing among different emerging economies. This paper aims to identify the determinants of bank credit risk by focusing on five SSA countries: Kenya, Namibia, South Africa, Zambia and Uganda. Using the ARDL approach to cointegration, findings indicate that increased money supply conditions have a decreasing effect on NPLs in all counties, banking industry-specific variables play a significant role in the case of South Africa and Uganda while NPLs are driven by country-specific variables in the case of Kenya, South Africa and Zambia. The effect of the Global Financial Crisis is evidenced indirectly. Drawing on evidence from CESEE countries with long experience in banking crises, reforms and financial deepening process, the paper provides lessons for SSA countries and offers policy recommendations in the direction of strengthening banks’ balance sheets to ensure financial stability.

中文翻译：

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撒哈拉以南非洲银行体系中的信用风险决定因素：来自五个国家的证据以及从中东欧和东南欧国家汲取的经验教训

摘要在过去的几十年中，由于良性的宏观经济，监管和金融趋势，撒哈拉以南非洲（SSA）的银行系统显着增长。尽管如此，与中东欧和东南欧（CESEE）国家类似，结构性问题，大宗商品价格波动，资本流动逆转以及外部冲击造成的溢出效应仍使下行风险进一步加剧。鉴于2008-2009年全球金融危机，人们对了解银行业动荡的原因给予了极大关注，其中大部分研究侧重于发达经济体，在较小程度上涉及大型新兴市场，而对此却鲜有关注。撒哈拉以南非洲的银行金融部门。此外，缺乏针对不同新兴经济体之间知识共享的研究。本文旨在通过关注五个SSA国家（肯尼亚，纳米比亚，南非，赞比亚和乌干达）来确定银行信贷风险的决定因素。使用ARDL方法进行协整，研究结果表明，货币供应条件的增加对所有县的不良贷款都有所减少，南非和乌干达的银行业特定变量起着重要作用，而不良贷款则由特定国家变量驱动以肯尼亚，南非和赞比亚为例。全球金融危机的影响是间接证明的。该文章借鉴了在银行业危机，改革和金融深化过程中具有长期经验的CESEE国家的证据，为撒哈拉以南非洲国家提供了经验教训，并为加强银行资产负债表以确保金融稳定提供了政策建议。