Abstract This paper provides a full characterization of inflation rate forecasts using the mean values from Consensus Economics for a sample of 14 Latin American countries between 1989 and 2014. It also assesses the performance of inflation rate forecasts around business cycles’ turning points. Results show that inflation forecasts in the region display the standard property that as the forecast horizon shortens accuracy improves. On average, forecasters underpredict inflation, but this masks very different country experiences. We find evidence point to biasedness of inflation forecasts for year-ahead forecasts but not for current year. Tests’ results point to forecast inefficiency which is also evidenced by a tendency to smooth them between revisions. Focusing on business cycle turning points, forecasters tend to slightly underpredict the inflation rate and the extent of underprediction increases during recessions. The hypothesis of forecast efficiency is overwhelmingly rejected both during recessions and recoveries.

中文翻译：

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通货膨胀预测在拉丁美洲的表现

摘要本文使用Consensus Economics的平均值对1989年至2014年之间的14个拉美国家提供了通货膨胀率预测的完整描述。它还评估了经济周期转折点附近的通货膨胀率预测的绩效。结果表明，该地区的通货膨胀预测显示出标准属性，即随着预测范围的缩短，准确性会提高。平均而言，预报员低估了通货膨胀，但这掩盖了非常不同的国家经历。我们发现有证据表明，通货膨胀预测对年度预测有偏见，但对本年度却没有。测试的结果表明预测效率低下，这也可以通过在修订之间平滑它们的趋势来证明。专注于经济周期的转折点，预测者倾向于略微低估通货膨胀率，而在衰退期间低估的程度会增加。在衰退和复苏期间，预测效率的假设被绝大多数人否定了。