We investigate why macro-Mincer models have been unable to identify a positive longitudinal effect of schooling on GDP over short periods. We first determine that the best Mincer model of workers’ cross-sectional earnings includes two schooling-experience interactions and no independent effect of experience. In the results for this model, about half of the effect of additional schooling occurred in the initial five-year period and the remaining effect was delayed up to 40 years. We then show that this same lagged pattern successfully explains the effect of schooling on GDP in 98 countries over five-year intervals during 1975-2005. Over this period an additional year of schooling raised GDP by 5.8% on average, but by less initially due to the interaction effect with experience. The effects on GDP were consistent with the cumulative effects of schooling on workers’ earnings. We conclude that average years of schooling is an inaccurate measure of a country’s human capital unless the interactive effect with experience is taken into account.

中文翻译：

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宏Mincer模型中的增长：通过学习和体验互动获得良好的结果

我们调查了为什么宏观Mincer模型无法在短期内确定教育对GDP的积极纵向影响。我们首先确定，最佳的Mincer工人横截面收入模型包括两个教育与经验的相互作用，并且没有经验的独立影响。在该模型的结果中，约有一半的额外学校教育效果发生在最初的五年期间，其余的效果被推迟到40年。然后，我们证明，这种相同的滞后模式成功地说明了1975-2005年间，教育在98个国家中以五年为间隔对GDP的影响。在此期间，一年的受教育时间平均使GDP增长了5.8％，但由于与经验的相互作用，最初的增长速度较慢。对GDP的影响与上学对工人收入的累积影响一致。我们得出的结论是，除非考虑到经验的相互作用，否则平均受教育年限无法衡量一个国家的人力资本。