We develop a theory that links the U.S. dollar's valuation in FX markets to the convenience yield that foreign investors derive from holding U.S. safe assets. We show that this convenience yield can be inferred from the Treasury basis, the yield gap between U.S. government and currency‐hedged foreign government bonds. Consistent with the theory, a widening of the basis coincides with an immediate appreciation and a subsequent depreciation of the dollar. Our results lend empirical support to models that impute a special role to the United States as the world's provider of safe assets and the dollar as the world's reserve currency.

中文翻译：

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国外安全资产需求与美元汇率

我们建立了一种理论，将美元在外汇市场中的估值与外国投资者从持有美国安全资产中获得的便利收益联系起来。我们表明，这种便利的收益率可以从财政部，美国政府与货币对冲的外国政府债券之间的收益率差距中推论得出。与该理论一致的是，基础的扩大与美元的立即升值和随后的贬值相吻合。我们的结果为模型提供了经验支持，这些模型赋予美国作为世界安全资产提供者和美元作为世界储备货币的特殊地位。