Motivated by discussions of skill mismatches on local German vocational educational and training (VET) markets, this paper analyses how occupational segments of VET entry of individuals with lower and intermediate secondary school degree relate to local labor market characteristics. The econometric analysis applies data from a survey conducted with 9th graders within the German National Educational Panel Study (NEPS). Considering opportunity structures and the local competition for training positions, we find that the match between occupations' skill demands and individuals' abilities tends to be specifically close in diverse and competitive urban labor markets. In non-competitive peripheral labor markets, in contrast, graduates with lower school certificates seem to have a higher likelihood of entering VET in segments that are specifically attractive for graduates with upper secondary school degree. The results on the allocation of abilities and the weight of preferences under different labor market conditions have different welfare implications from an individual, regional and general economic perspective.

出于对德国当地职业教育和培训（VET）市场上技能不匹配的讨论的动机，本文分析了初中和高中学历的个人的VET进入职业类别如何与当地劳动力市场特征相关。计量经济学分析应用了与德国国家教育小组研究（NEPS）中的9年级学生进行的调查数据。考虑到机会结构和当地对培训职位的竞争，我们发现职业的技能需求与个人能力之间的匹配在多样化且竞争激烈的城市劳动力市场中尤其紧密。相反，在非竞争性外围劳动力市场中，具有较低学历证书的毕业生似乎更有可能进入某些领域的职业教育与培训，这对具有高中学位的毕业生特别有吸引力。从个体，区域和总体经济的角度来看，在不同劳动力市场条件下能力分配和偏好权重的结果对福利的影响也不同。