Juglans regia L. is a species of great importance for environmental management due to attractive wood and nutritious fruits, but also high invasive potential. Thus, uncertainties connected with its range shift are essential for environmental management. We aimed to predict the future climatic optimum of J. regia in Europe under changing climate, to assess the most important climatic factors that determine its potential distribution, and to compare the results obtained among three different global circulation models (GCMs). We used distribution data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility and completed it with data from the literature. Using the MaxEnt algorithm, we prepared a species distribution model for the years 2061–2080 using 19 bioclimatic variables. We applied three emission scenarios, expressed by representative concentration pathways (RCPs): RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 and three GCMs: HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and MPI-SM-LR. Our study predicted northward shift of the species, with simultaneous distribution loss at the southern edge of the current range, driven by increasing climate seasonality. Temperature seasonality and temperature annual range were the predictors of highest importance. General trends are common for the projections presented, but the variability of our projections among the GCMs or RCPs applied (predicted range will contract from 17.4 to 84.6% of the current distribution area) shows that caution should be maintained while managing J. regia populations. Adaptive measures should focus on maintaining genetic resources and assisted migration at the southern range edge, due to range contraction. Simultaneously, at the northern edge of the range, J. regia turns into an invasive species, which may need risk assessments and control of unintended spread.

胡桃木（Juglans regia L.）由于具有吸引人的木材和营养丰富的水果，而且具有很高的入侵潜力，因此对环境管理至关重要。因此，与范围变化有关的不确定性对于环境管理至关重要。我们旨在预测J. regia的未来最佳气候在气候变化的欧洲，评估决定其潜在分布的最重要的气候因素，并比较在三种不同的全球环流模型（GCM）中获得的结果。我们使用了来自全球生物多样性信息基金的分布数据，并用文献数据进行了完善。使用MaxEnt算法，我们使用19个生物气候变量准备了2061-2080年的物种分布模型。我们应用了三种排放情景，用代表性的浓度途径（RCP）表示：RCP2.6，RCP4.5和RCP8.5，以及三种GCM：HadGEM2-ES，IPSL-CM5A-LR和MPI-SM-LR。我们的研究预测了该物种的北移，同时由于气候季节的增加，在当前范围的南边缘同时分布减少。温度季节和温度年度范围是最重要的预测因素。所呈现的预测通常具有总体趋势，但是我们所预测的在所应用的GCM或RCP之间的差异（预测范围将从当前分布区域的17.4缩小至84.6％）表明，在管理时应保持谨慎J. regia种群。由于范围缩小，适应性措施应侧重于维护遗传资源和协助南部山脉边缘的迁徙。同时，在该山脉的北部边缘，雷格斯猪变成了一种入侵物种，可能需要评估风险并控制意外扩散。