ABSTRACT After the golden age of arms control, Russia and the United States are no longer engaged in arms control negotiations. The landmark Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty was officially terminated on 2 August 2019, and the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) expires in February 2021. The continued political alienation between Russia and the West, combined with new military-technological developments, will undermine strategic stability. A new arms race is looming with severe implications for global nuclear disarmament, nonproliferation, and regional stability. Neither superpower seems to have a strategy for developing arms control and disarmament. On the contrary, both sides are pursuing costly programs to replace and modernize their Cold War strategic arsenals. A more ambitious approach is necessary for further reductions in nuclear arsenals and the extension of long-standing arms control commitments. The collapse of the INF Treaty could have been prevented by reciprocal inspections to verify treaty compliance. The United States and Russia can agree to extend New START to 2026 and to undertake a wider and structured discussion about what they could do to enhance strategic stability. Such a model must take into account third-country actors, missile defense, precision-guided conventional strike systems, and future actions in outer space and cyberspace. NATO and Russia need to launch a substantive dialogue on how to reduce the risk of hazardous military activities and to prevent military escalation caused by accidents and miscalculations. Other nuclear-armed states and their different types of delivery systems must be part of the disarmament process.

中文翻译：

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核军备控制和裁军的深层危机：发展状况和挑战

摘要在军备控制的黄金时代之后，俄罗斯和美国不再参与军备控制谈判。具有里程碑意义的《中程核力量条约》（INF）于2019年8月2日正式终止，新的《减少战略武器条约》（新的START）将于2021年2月到期。技术的发展，将破坏战略稳定。一场新的军备竞赛正在逼近，对全球核裁军，不扩散和区域稳定产生严重影响。超级大国似乎都没有制定军备控制和裁军的战略。相反，双方都在寻求昂贵的方案来替换和现代化其冷战战略武库。为了进一步减少核武库和扩大长期的军备控制承诺，有必要采取更加雄心勃勃的方法。可以通过相互检查以核实条约的遵守情况来防止INF条约的崩溃。美国和俄罗斯可以同意将《新START》延长至2026年，并就它们可以采取哪些措施增强战略稳定性进行更广泛，结构化的讨论。这种模型必须考虑到第三国行动者，导弹防御系统，精确制导的常规打击系统以及未来在外层空间和网络空间中的行动。北约和俄罗斯需要就如何减少危险的军事活动的风险以及如何防止由于事故和错误的计算而导致的军事升级展开实质性对话。