ABSTRACT Russia’s strategic modernization program suggests that it is determined to continue its reliance on nuclear weapons as a key element of its national security strategy. The US is now also committed to the large-scale modernization of its strategic forces. Combined with uncertainty about the future of US-Russian arms control, these developments have given rise to concerns about a potential new round of the arms race that could reverse the progress in nuclear disarmament that has been achieved since the end of the Cold War. This paper considers Russia’s key modernization efforts and the factors that influence the decisions in that area. It concludes that modernization is shaped primarily by internal factors and traditional arms control, and that an emphasis on strategic stability plays a limited role in the process.

中文翻译：

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俄罗斯当前的核现代化与军备控制

摘要俄罗斯的战略现代化计划表明，它决心继续依靠核武器作为其国家安全战略的关键要素。美国现在也致力于其战略力量的大规模现代化。加上对美俄军备控制未来的不确定性，这些事态发展引起了人们对新一轮军备竞赛的担忧，这种新一轮军备竞赛可能会扭转自冷战结束以来已实现的核裁军进程。本文考虑了俄罗斯的关键现代化努力以及影响该领域决策的因素。结论是，现代化主要受内部因素和传统军备控制的影响，而对战略稳定的重视在这一过程中作用有限。