ABSTRACT The July 2017 UN Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) will come into force when 50 UN Member States ratify it. The new treaty has been condemned by nuclear weapon states on the grounds of its claimed adverse impacts on Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), and for not taking account of progress through step-by-step incremental measures. Supporters of the new treaty, including 122 UN Member states, have been concerned about the lack of substantive nuclear disarmament progress as envisaged under Article VI of the NPT. This study analyses the arguments for and against the new treaty in the context of recent 2018 NPT and Conference on Disarmament (CD) sessions, and regional nuclear disarmament arrangements. It draws upon the discussions and debates at the Geneva 23 April–4 May 2018 NPT Preparatory Committee, and positions taken in the 2018 CD sessions, to assess immediate and potential longer-term impacts of the TPNW. The roles of regional measures nuclear-weapon-free zones (NWFZs) and weapon-of-mass-destruction-free zones (WMDFZs) are also considered in the context of the TPNW and the NPT. The study argues that the TPNW, through its normative delegitimation and stigmatisation of nuclear weapons, is already creating a discernible impetus for substantive nuclear disarmament within and beyond the NPT and CD forums, despite the present resistance mounted by the nine nuclear-armed states.

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《核禁令》和2018年裁军论坛：初步影响评估

摘要2017年7月的《联合国禁止核武器条约》（TPNW）将于50个联合国会员国批准后生效。核武器国家谴责该新条约，理由是该条约声称对《不扩散条约》（NPT）产生了不利影响，并且没有考虑到逐步采取增量措施的进展。包括122个联合国会员国在内的新条约的支持者一直对《不扩散核武器条约》第六条所设想的缺乏实质性的核裁军进展感到关切。这项研究在最近的2018年《不扩散核武器条约》和裁军谈判会议（CD）会议以及区域核裁军安排的背景下，分析了支持和反对新条约的论点。它借鉴了《不扩散核武器条约》筹备委员会2018年4月23日至5月4日在日内瓦举行的讨论和辩论，以及在2018年CD会议上采取的立场，以评估TPNW的直接和潜在的长期影响。在TPNW和NPT的背景下，还考虑了区域措施无核武器区（NWFZs）和无大规模杀伤性武器区（WMDFZs）的作用。该研究认为，尽管九个核武装国家目前存在阻力，但TPNW通过其规范性的合法化和对核武器的污名化，已经在《不扩散核武器条约》和《裁谈会》论坛内外创造了明显的核裁军动力。