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A Water Evaluation and Planning-based framework for the long-term prediction of urban water demand and supply
SIMULATION ( IF 1.3 ) Pub Date : 2021-01-31 , DOI: 10.1177/0037549720984250
Arfa Saleem 1 , Imran Mahmood 1, 2 , Hessam Sarjoughian 3 , Hasan Arshad Nasir 1 , Asad Waqar Malik 1
Affiliation  

Increased usage and non-efficient management of limited resources has created the risk of water resource scarcity. Due to climate change, urbanization, and lack of effective water resource management, countries like Pakistan are facing difficulties coping with the increasing water demand. Rapid urbanization and non-resilient infrastructures are the key barriers in sustainable urban water resource management. Therefore, there is an urgent need to address the challenges of urban water management through effective means. We propose a workflow for the modeling and simulation of sustainable urban water resource management and develop an integrated framework for the evaluation and planning of water resources in a typical urban setting. The proposed framework uses the Water Evaluation and Planning system to evaluate current and future water demand and the supply gap. Our simulation scenarios demonstrate that the demand–supply gap can effectively be dealt with by dynamic resource allocation, in the presence of assumptions, for example, those related to population and demand variation with the change of weather, and thus work as a tool for informed decisions for supply management. In the first scenario, 23% yearly water demand is reduced, while in the second scenario, no unmet demand is observed due to the 21% increase in supply delivered. Similarly, the overall demand is fulfilled through 23% decrease in water demand using water conservation. Demand-side management not only reduces the water usage in demand sites but also helps to save money, and preserve the environment. Our framework coupled with a visualization dashboard deployed in the water resource management department of a metropolitan area can assist in water planning and effective governance.



中文翻译:

一个基于水评估和规划的框架,用于长期预测城市水的需求和供应

有限资源的使用增加和管理效率低下,造成了水资源短缺的风险。由于气候变化,城市化和缺乏有效的水资源管理,巴基斯坦等国家在应对日益增长的水需求方面面临困难。快速的城市化和非弹性基础设施是可持续城市水资源管理的主要障碍。因此,迫切需要通过有效手段应对城市水管理的挑战。我们提出了用于可持续城市水资源管理建模和仿真的工作流程,并为典型城市环境中的水资源评估和规划开发了一个集成框架。拟议的框架使用水资源评估和计划系统来评估当前和未来的用水需求以及供应缺口。我们的模拟场景表明,在存在假设的情况下,可以通过动态资源分配有效地解决需求-供应缺口,例如,那些与人口和需求随天气变化的变化有关的假设,因此可以作为信息通报的工具。供应管理决策。在第一种情况下,每年的用水需求减少了23%,而在第二种情况下,由于交付的供水量增加了21%,因此未观察到未满足的需求。同样,通过节约用水,总需求可以通过减少23%的需水量来满足。需求方管理不仅可以减少需求现场的用水量,而且还可以节省资金和保护环境。

更新日期:2021-02-01
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