In the past decade, Oklahoma has experienced unprecedented seismicity rates, following an increase in the volumes of wastewater that are being disposed underground. In this article, we perform a probabilistic assessment of the time-dependent seismic hazard in Oklahoma and incorporate these results into an integrated seismic risk model to assess the evolution of the statewide economic losses, including a conservative forecast through 2030. Our risk model employs an injection-driven earthquake rate model, a region-specific ground motion model, a recent Vs30 map, HAZUS exposure data and updated vulnerability curves for both structural and nonstructural elements, and contents. The calculations are performed using a stochastic Monte Carlo–based approach implemented in the OpenQuake engine. The resulting seismic hazard maps illustrate the incompatibility of the regional seismic provisions with the current seismicity. In 2015, in particular, the induced seismic hazard in several places in Oklahoma was higher than along the San Andreas fault. During the peak of seismicity in 2015, the seismic risk was 275 times higher than the background level, with the vast majority of losses originating from damages to nonstructural elements and contents. Our direct economic loss estimates are in reasonable agreement with the paid insurance claims, but show significant sensitivity to the ground motion model selection. The proposed risk model, with possible regular updates on the seismicity rate forecast, can help stakeholders define acceptable production levels.

在过去的十年中，随着地下污水处理量的增加，俄克拉荷马州的地震活动率达到了前所未有的水平。在本文中，我们对俄克拉何马州随时间变化的地震灾害进行概率评估，并将这些结果纳入综合地震风险模型，以评估全州经济损失的演变，包括到2030年的保守预测。我们的风险模型采用了喷射驱动地震速率模型，特定区域地面运动模型，最近VS30地图，HAZUS曝光数据和用于结构和非结构的元件，并且内容更新漏洞曲线。使用OpenQuake中实施的基于随机蒙特卡洛方法进行计算发动机。由此产生的地震危险图说明了区域地震规定与当前地震活动的不相容性。特别是在2015年，俄克拉荷马州多个地方的诱发地震危险性高于圣安德烈亚斯断层沿线。在2015年地震高峰期间，地震风险比背景地震风险高275倍，其中绝大多数损失来自对非结构性元素和内容物的破坏。我们的直接经济损失估算与已付保险索赔合理地吻合，但对地面运动模型的选择显示出极大的敏感性。拟议的风险模型以及可能的地震活动率预报定期更新，可以帮助利益相关者确定可接受的生产水平。