ABSTRACT

Using a panel of state-level data for the period 1970–2018 this paper assesses the impacts of climatic hazards, viz., droughts, floods, heat-waves and cold-waves, on agricultural growth in India, and also evaluates the potential of a few important adaptation measures in mitigating their negative growth effects. The findings reveal that climatic hazards negatively impact agricultural growth, but different hazards impact it differently. Droughts and heat-waves have larger negative effects, and these effects are stronger for the poor and pre-dominantly agrarian states. Nonetheless, the findings also demonstrate that the negative effects of climatic hazards can partially be offset using the adaptation measures, ex-ante and ex-post the hazards. Irrigation and crop diversification appear to provide larger adaptation benefits, especially against droughts and heat-waves, but their benefits fall significantly in case the hazards become more frequent. The adaptation benefits of manipulations in input-use and diversification into animal husbandry are comparatively small but more sustainable in the event of frequent climatic hazards.

摘要

本文使用 1970 年至 2018 年期间的一组州级数据评估了气候灾害（即干旱、洪水、热浪和寒潮）对印度农业增长的影响，并评估了气候变化的潜力一些重要的适应措施，以减轻它们对增长的负面影响。研究结果表明，气候灾害对农业增长产生负面影响，但不同的灾害对其产生的影响不同。干旱和热浪会产生更大的负面影响，而这些影响对于贫穷和以农业为主的国家更为强烈。尽管如此，研究结果还表明，气候灾害的负面影响可以通过事前和事后的适应措施部分抵消。危害。灌溉和作物多样化似乎提供了更大的适应效益，尤其是在对抗干旱和热浪时，但如果灾害变得更加频繁，它们的效益就会显着下降。投入物使用和畜牧业多样化的调整收益相对较小，但在频繁发生气候灾害的情况下更具可持续性。