Children often judge that strange and improbable events are impossible, but the mechanisms behind their reasoning remain unclear. This article (N = 250) provides evidence that young children use a similarity heuristic that compares potential events to similar known events to determine whether events are possible. Experiment 1 shows that 5‐ to 6‐year‐olds who hear about improbable events go on to judge that similar improbable events can happen. Experiment 2 shows that 5‐ to 6‐year‐olds more often affirm that improbable events can happen if told about related improbable events than if told about unrelated ones. Finally, Experiment 3 shows that 5‐ to 6‐year‐olds affirm the possibility of improbable events related to known events, but deny that related impossible events can happen.

中文翻译：

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儿童可能性判断中的相似启发式

孩子们经常判断出不可能发生的奇怪而不可能的事件，但是其推理背后的机制仍不清楚。本文（N  = 250）提供了证据，表明幼儿使用相似度启发式算法将潜在事件与相似的已知事件进行比较，以确定事件是否可能发生。实验1显示，听到了不太可能发生的事件的5至6岁儿童继续判断是否可能发生类似的不太可能发生的事件。实验2表明，五到六岁的孩子比起被告知无关的事件，更常断言，如果被告知相关的不太可能发生的事件，则可能会发生不太可能发生的事件。最后，实验3显示5至6岁的儿童肯定了与已知事件相关的不太可能发生的事件的可能性，但否认相关的不可能事件可能发生。