Scholars estimate that 90–95% of guilty pleas are the result of plea bargaining and there is a growing body of empirical research on plea bargain decision-making. We use a new experimental paradigm that mimics prosecutors’ actual decision-making processes to examine factors that influence plea bargaining decisions. Participants received a casefile detailing a theft from an electronics store. This casefile—fabricated to reflect one a prosecutor would actually receive—included a police report, witness statements, and a criminal history report. In these materials, we manipulated the defendant's motive, the severity of the crime, and the defendant's criminal history and measured the impact of these factors on participants’ decisions to offer a plea and the severity of the plea offers—operationalized as sentence offer length. The results indicated that the vast majority of the participants initially decided to offer a plea. The severity of the crime (operationalized as value of the theft) and defendant's criminal history impacted plea decisions, such that higher severity and a criminal history of theft increased the length of the sentence offer. Contrary to our hypothesis, the defendant's motive had no effect on plea offers. These results parallel current sentencing practices codified in law. Policy implications are discussed.

中文翻译：

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检查辩诉交易中的起诉决策：社区样本中的实验范式

学者们估计，90-95% 的认罪是辩诉交易的结果，并且关于辩诉交易决策的实证研究越来越多。我们使用一种模仿检察官实际决策过程的新实验范式来检查影响辩诉交易决策的因素。参与者收到了一份详细说明电子商店盗窃案的案件档案。这份档案——根据检察官实际收到的情况而制作——包括一份警方报告、证人陈述和一份犯罪历史报告。在这些材料中，我们操纵了被告的动机、犯罪的严重性和被告的犯罪历史，并测量了这些因素对参与者提出认罪的决定和认罪提议的严重性的影响——以刑期长度来操作。结果表明，绝大多数参与者最初决定提出请求。犯罪的严重性（作为盗窃的价值）和被告的犯罪历史会影响认罪决定，因此较高的严重性和盗窃的犯罪历史会增加刑期。与我们的假设相反，被告的动机对认罪提议没有影响。这些结果与法律编纂的当前量刑实践相平行。政策影响进行了讨论。被告的动机对认罪请求没有影响。这些结果与法律编纂的当前量刑实践相平行。政策影响进行了讨论。被告的动机对认罪请求没有影响。这些结果与法律编纂的当前量刑实践相平行。政策影响进行了讨论。