The objective of this paper is to explore the effects of the influencing factors on the intercity travel mode competition and evaluate their dynamic effects across the travel distance. Passengers’ activity data over the whole process of intercity travel were collected for analysis. A Bayesian binary logistic model was developed to identify the significant factors associated with the intercity travel mode competition. An elasticity analysis was applied to quantitatively analyze the dynamic effects of the significant factors on the intercity travel mode competition. The Bayesian binary logistic models results showed that factors such as the travel distance, intercity travel cost, intercity travel time, safety, comfort, punctuality, access time, and departure time have significant impacts on the intercity travel mode competition. Moreover, the elasticity analysis results showed that the elasticity of the factors varies across the travel distance, and each factor has a heterogeneous effect on the travel mode market share across the travel distance. These findings can help in the implementation of more effective management strategies for intercity travel mode planning.

本文的目的是探索影响因素对城际出行方式竞争的影响，并评估其在整个出行距离上的动态影响。收集了城市间旅行整个过程中的乘客活动数据以进行分析。建立了贝叶斯二元逻辑模型以识别与城际出行方式竞争相关的重要因素。运用弹性分析法定量分析了重要因素对城际出行方式竞争的动态影响。贝叶斯二元逻辑模型结果表明，出行距离，城际出行成本，城际出行时间，安全性，舒适性，守时性，进出时间和出发时间等因素对城际出行方式竞争产生重大影响。此外，弹性分析结果表明，各因素的弹性在整个出行距离上变化，并且每个因素对整个出行距离上的出行方式市场份额都有不同的影响。这些发现可以帮助实施更有效的城市间出行方式规划管理策略。