This analysis explores the valuation of feedstock quality attributes of switchgrass and miscanthus – two energy crops poised for future expansion – and compares the relative economic availability of these two crops under two scenarios: (i) uniform price assumptions (i.e., no incentive for quality), and (ii) a scenario of a price premium based on convertibility (i.e., an incentive for quality). Given data on cellulose content, hemicellulose content, and their relative convertibility, miscanthus is expected to be 11% more efficient at conversion to biofuels than switchgrass under the biochemical conversion route. Based on this scenario of improved conversion efficiency and associated profit, we simulate an 11% price premium for miscanthus over other feedstocks in a base‐case scenario. By adding this price premium, supplies of miscanthus increase over the base case by about 4 million (44%), 94 million (64%), and 166 million (94%) tons in year 0, 10, and 20 after simulated contracts for production are initiated respectively. These results emphasize that custom simulations are needed to quantify feedstock availability if supplies are intended to reflect grower response to industry demands for feedstock quality specifications. Farmers can grow ‘peas or carrots’, and price signals from biorefineries will influence what energy crops they produce. Recognizing that the energy crop mix is tractable according to quality characteristics is relevant both for near‐term and long‐term biofuels research and development. We recommend accounting for market preferences for quality attributes when estimating potential future supplies of energy crops. © 2021 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

中文翻译：

---

能源作物优惠市场激励的供给分析

该分析探讨了柳枝and和桔梗的原料质量属性（两种能量作物准备未来扩展）的价值评估，并比较了两种情况下这两种作物的相对经济可用性：（i）统一的价格假设（即无质量诱因） ；以及（ii）基于可兑换性的价格溢价（即对质量的激励）的情况。给定有关纤维素含量，半纤维素含量及其相对转化性的数据，在生物化学转化途径下，芒mis转化为生物燃料的效率预计比柳枝switch高11％。基于这种提高转换效率和相关利润的方案，在基本方案中，我们模拟了金枪鱼相对于其他原料的价格溢价11％的情况。通过加上此价格溢价，在开始模拟生产合同后的第0年，10年和20年中，黄花菜的供应量比基本情况分别增加了约400万吨（44％），9400万吨（64％）和1.66亿吨（94％）吨。这些结果强调，如果供应旨在反映种植者对工业对原料质量规格的需求的反应，则需要定制模拟来量化原料的可用性。农民可以种植“豌豆或胡萝卜”，而生物精炼厂的价格信号将影响他们生产的能源作物。认识到能源作物的混合根据质量特性是易于处理的，这与近期和长期生物燃料的研究与开发都息息相关。我们建议在估算未来能源作物的潜在供应时考虑市场对质量属性的偏好。