The increasing demand for pulpwood promotes the rapid expansion of eucalypt plantations over fire-prone savannas in western Brazil. Currently, large wildfires pose a real threat to these commercial plantations, disrupting the supply chain. Forest managers lack site-specific quantitative assessments to inform large scale harvesting plans and cost-effective risk reduction programs. In this study, we combined wildfire likelihood estimates with potential fire effects to assess stand-level expected economic losses in eucalypt plantations across a savanna enclave in western Brazil. Here, we used the minimum travel time fire spread algorithm to predict the annual burn probability (aBP). The economic loss was estimated combining pixel-level aBP with the associated forest value according to the raw material market value, the management cost cash flow, and the harvesting rotation period. Young eucalypt stands (< 2 yr) attained the highest wildfire likelihood values, whereas intermediate-age to mature plantations (> 4 yr) showed the largest economic losses (> 400 US$ ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹). Our findings suggest that local forest managers should expect a 1.75% of annual losses in terms of raw material provision, equivalent to some 20 million US$ yr⁻¹. Fuel reduction programs focusing on aBP hotspots plus ignition prevention along the forest interfaces would reduce risk to eucalypt plantations. In addition, environmental policies related to ignition mitigation and correct usage of fire across grasslands might be developed to attenuate the risk. This study implements a methodological framework that would allow comparing alternative wildfire risk management strategies in South American tropical savanna where revenue from forest systems is a fundamental source of income for local economies.

对纸浆木材需求的增长促进了巴西西部易发热带稀树草原上桉树人工林的迅速扩张。当前，大面积的野火对这些商业种植园构成了真正的威胁，扰乱了供应链。森林管理者缺乏针对具体地点的定量评估，无法为大规模采伐计划和具有成本效益的降低风险计划提供依据。在这项研究中，我们将野火可能性估计值与潜在的火灾影响相结合，以评估巴西西部热带稀树草原上桉树人工林的林木级预期经济损失。在这里，我们使用最小行进时间火势蔓延算法来预测年度燃烧概率（aBP）。根据原材料市场价值，管理成本现金流量，像素级aBP与相关森林价值的组合估算了经济损失，和收获轮换期。幼小的桉树林（<2年）达到最高的野火似然值，而中龄到成熟人工林（> 4年）的经济损失最大（> 400美元/公顷）^-1  yr ^-1）。我们的研究结果表明，就原材料供应而言，当地森林管理者应预期每年损失的1.75％，相当于每年约2000万美元^-1。以aBP热点为重点的燃料减少计划以及沿森林交界处的着火预防将减少桉树人工林的风险。此外，可以制定与缓解点火和在草原上正确使用火有关的环境政策，以减轻这种风险。这项研究实施了一种方法框架，该框架将允许比较南美热带稀树草原的替代野火风险管理策略，在该热带稀树草原中，来自森林系统的收入是当地经济的基本收入来源。