Signal arrival‐time estimation plays a critical role in a variety of downstream seismic analyses, including location estimation and source characterization. Any arrival‐time errors propagate through subsequent data‐processing results. In this article, we detail a general framework for refining estimated seismic signal arrival times along with full estimation of their associated uncertainty. Using the standard short‐term average/long‐term average threshold algorithm to identify a search window, we demonstrate how to refine the pick estimate through two different approaches. In both cases, new waveform realizations are generated through bootstrap algorithms to produce full a posteriori estimates of uncertainty of onset arrival time of the seismic signal. The onset arrival uncertainty estimates provide additional data‐derived information from the signal and have the potential to influence seismic analysis along several fronts.

中文翻译：

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生成地震信号开始时间的不确定性分布

信号到达时间估计在各种下游地震分析中都起着关键作用，包括位置估计和震源表征。任何到达时间错误都会通过后续的数据处理结果传播。在本文中，我们详细介绍了用于精简估计地震信号到达时间以及对其相关不确定性的完整估计的通用框架。使用标准的短期平均/长期平均阈值算法来识别搜索窗口，我们演示了如何通过两种不同的方法来优化选择估计。在这两种情况下，新的波形实现都是通过自举算法生成的，以生成地震信号开始到达时间不确定性的完整后验估计。