This paper presents a data-based simple model for fitting the available data of the Covid-19 pandemic evolution in France. The time series concerning the 13 regions of mainland France have been considered for fitting and validating the model. An extremely simple, two-dimensional model with only two parameters demonstrated to be able to reproduce the time series concerning the number of daily demises caused by Covid-19, the hospitalizations, intensive care and emergency accesses, the daily number of positive tests and other indicators, for the different French regions. These results might contribute to stimulate a debate on the suitability of much more complex models for reproducing and forecasting the pandemic evolution since, although relevant from a mechanistic point of view, they could lead to nonidentifiability issues.

本文提出了一个基于数据的简单模型，用于拟合法国 Covid-19 大流行演变的可用数据。有关法国大陆 13 个地区的时间序列已被考虑用于拟合和验证模型。一个只有两个参数的极其简单的二维模型被证明能够重现与 Covid-19 造成的每日死亡人数、住院、重症监护和紧急访问、每日阳性测试数量和其他相关的时间序列指标，针对不同的法国地区。这些结果可能有助于引发关于更复杂的模型是否适用于再现和预测大流行演变的辩论，因为尽管从机制的角度来看相关，但它们可能导致不可识别性问题。