Combining an olive growth simulation model with a specific module for economic components—namely, net margin (NM) and irrigation water productivity (IWP)—resulted in the AdaptaOlive v2.0 model. This model, used with perturbed climate (PC) and impact response surfaces (IRS), provided a tool that enabled the assessment of the impact of climate change on economic components of Mediterranean olive groves in southern Spain. Under future mild winter conditions, reductions in NM and IWP are expected; negative NM values may even be registered, with water availability having a relatively small effect on the results. In the opposite case, under future cool winter conditions, NM and IWP will increase, except for rainfed olive groves under low rainfall conditions, with water availability playing a major role. In addition, the distance (in terms of changes in temperature and rainfall compared to baseline conditions) to critical thresholds such as negative NM or IWP lower than irrigation water cost was assessed, identifying changes depending on weather conditions, water cost and olive oil price. Thus, future temperature increases of around 3 ºC under mild winter conditions could generate negative values of NM. These economic results impact the performance of adaptation strategies for olive groves, even ruling out some strategies that were previously recommended when only agronomic components were taken into account (e.g., deficit irrigation under mild winter conditions). There is thus a need for site-specific recommendations related to the use of irrigation and olive orchard management to maintain or increase the sustainability of these cropping systems. Despite the utility of using PC and IRS to achieve a scientifically sound evaluation of Mediterranean olive groves under future weather conditions, the approach presents some limitations that can be overcome using climate model outputs.

将橄榄生长模拟模型与用于经济要素的特定模块（即净利润（NM）和灌溉水生产率（IWP））结合在一起，可以得出AdaptaOlive v2.0模型。该模型与受干扰的气候（PC）和冲击响应面（IRS）一起使用，提供了一种工具，可以评估气候变化对西班牙南部地中海橄榄树的经济构成部分的影响。在未来温和的冬季条件下，预计NM和IWP将减少；甚至可以记录负NM值，而可用水量对结果的影响相对较小。在相反的情况下，在未来凉爽的冬季条件下，NM和IWP将会增加，除了在低降雨条件下的雨养橄榄树以外，水的供应量起着主要作用。此外，评估到临界阈值（例如低于灌溉水成本的负NM或IWP）与临界阈值（根据温度和降雨量的变化）的距离，并根据天气条件，水成本和橄榄油价格确定变化。因此，在温和的冬季条件下，未来温度升高约3ºC可能会产生负值NM。这些经济结果影响了橄榄树适应策略的性能，甚至排除了以前只考虑农艺成分时建议的一些策略（例如，冬季温和条件下的亏水灌溉）。因此，需要针对特定​​地点的建议，这些建议与灌溉和橄榄园管理的使用有关，以维持或增加这些种植系统的可持续性。