The Japanese government plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2050. However, it is not yet clear which policy measures the government will adopt to achieve this goal. In this regard, environmental tax reform, which is the combination of carbon regulation and the reduction of existing distortionary taxes, has attracted much attention. This paper examines the effects of an environmental tax reform in Japan. Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, we analyze the quantitative impacts of an environmental tax reform and clarify which types of environmental tax reform are the most desirable. In the simulation, we introduce a carbon tax and consider the following four scenarios for the use of the carbon tax revenue: (1) a lump-sum rebate to the household, (2) a cut in income taxes, (3) a cut in corporate taxes and (4) a cut in consumption taxes. The first scenario is a pure carbon tax, and the other three scenarios are types of environmental tax reform. Our CGE simulation shows that (1) environmental tax reform tends to generate more desirable impacts than the pure carbon tax and that (2) the strong double dividend is obtained in some cases. In particular, we show that a cut in corporate taxes leads to the most desirable policy in terms of GDP and national income.

日本政府计划到2050年将温室气体排放减少80％。但是，目前尚不清楚日本政府将采取哪些政策措施来实现这一目标。在这方面，环境税制改革是碳管制和减少现有扭曲税的结合，引起了人们的广泛关注。本文研究了日本环境税改革的影响。使用动态可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型，我们分析了环境税制改革的量化影响，并阐明了最理想的环境税制改革类型。在模拟中，我们引入了碳税，并考虑了以下四种使用碳税收入的方案：（1）一次性向家庭返还；（2）降低所得税；（3）减少公司税和（4）减少消费税。第一种方案是纯碳税，其他三种方案是环境税改革的类型。我们的CGE模拟表明，（1）环境税制改革往往比纯碳税产生更理想的影响，并且（2）在某些情况下获得了强大的双重红利。特别是，我们表明，降低公司税将导致就GDP和国民收入而言最可取的政策。