The paper presents the analysis of a sub-set of high-resolution bias-adjusted simulations from the EURO-CORDEX initiative, in order to examine the changes in the mean climate and the extremes in three Mediterranean islands, namely, Sicily, Crete and Cyprus, in the near future (2031–2060) compared to the present climate (1971–2000), under two future scenarios, i.e. RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The analysis entails commonly used climatic indices of interest related to the islands’ agricultural sector. The results indicate robust increases for both the mean maximum and minimum temperatures on a seasonal basis, as well as for the temperature related extremes under both climate scenarios. On the contrary, the changes in precipitation are less pronounced as the changes in the seasonal precipitation are not found statistically significant for the three islands under both scenarios. The projected warming combined with the projected unchanged precipitation pattern in the future, especially in spring and summer, might expose the crops to conditions with a negative impact on the plants’ phenology, leading to implications on crop production and quality. The results presented here might be the basis for the development of an adaptation strategy specifically targeted on the three islands but also replicable to other Mediterranean islands.

本文介绍了EURO-CORDEX计划对高分辨率偏差调整后的模拟子集的分析，以检验三个地中海岛屿（西西里岛，克里特岛和塞浦路斯）的平均气候变化和极端气候变化与RCP4.5和RCP8.5两种未来情景相比，在不远的将来（2031-2060年）与目前的气候（1971-2000年）相比。分析需要与岛屿的农业部门相关的常用气候指数。结果表明，季节性平均最高和最低温度以及两种气候情景下与温度相关的极端温度均出现强劲增长。反之，由于在这两种情况下三个岛屿的季节性降水变化在统计上均不显着，因此降水变化不太明显。预计的变暖加上预计的未来降雨模式的不变，尤其是在春季和夏季，可能会使农作物处于不利于植物物候的状况，从而对作物的产量和品质产生影响。这里介绍的结果可能是制定专门针对这三个岛屿的适应战略的基础，但也可以复制到其他地中海岛屿。可能会使农作物处于不利于植物物候的状况，从而对农作物的产量和品质产生影响。这里介绍的结果可能是制定专门针对这三个岛屿的适应战略的基础，但也可以复制到其他地中海岛屿。可能会使农作物处于不利于植物物候的状况，从而对农作物的产量和品质产生影响。这里介绍的结果可能是制定专门针对这三个岛屿的适应战略的基础，但也可以复制到其他地中海岛屿。