We examine the empirical relationship between output variability and output growth for Britain using data for eight centuries covering the 1270 to 2014 period. Drawing on the economic history literature, we split the full sample period into four subperiods and use GARCH models to measure output growth uncertainty and estimate its effect on average growth. Within each sub-sample, we allow output growth to depend on the state of the system, for example 2-regime switching model would switch between high-growth and low-growth regimes. We find that the effect of uncertainty on growth differs depending on the existing growth regime. Low-growth regimes are associated with a negative effect of uncertainty on growth, and medium or high-growth regimes are associated with a positive effect. These findings are consistent across the four states of economic development. Our results indicate why the empirical literature to date has found mixed results when examining the effect of uncertainty on growth.

中文翻译：

---

英国产出增长与其不确定性有关吗？使用八个世纪数据的证据

我们使用涵盖 1270 年至 2014 年期间的八个世纪的数据来检验英国的产出可变性与产出增长之间的实证关系。借鉴经济史文献，我们将整个样本期分为四个子期，并使用 GARCH 模型来衡量产出增长的不确定性并估计其对平均增长的影响。在每个子样本中，我们允许产出增长取决于系统的状态，例如 2-regime 切换模型将在高增长和低增长状态之间切换。我们发现不确定性对增长的影响因现有的增长机制而异。低增长状态与不确定性对增长的负面影响相关，而中等或高增长状态与积极影响相关。这些发现在四种经济发展状态中是一致的。我们的结果表明，为什么迄今为止的实证文献在检查不确定性对增长的影响时得出了不同的结果。