We estimate the evolution of the conditional joint distribution of economic and financial conditions. Although the joint distribution is approximately Gaussian during normal periods, sharp tightenings of financial conditions lead to the emergence of additional modes. The U.S. economy has historically resolved quickly to the “good” mode, but we conjecture that poor policy choices could lead to prolonged periods of multimodality. We argue that multimodality arises naturally in a macrofinancial intermediary model with occasionally binding financial constraints.

中文翻译：

---

宏观动力学中的多模态

我们估计了经济和金融条件的有条件联合分配的演变。尽管正常情况下联合分布大致为高斯分布，但金融条件的急剧收紧导致出现了其他模式。从历史上看，美国经济已迅速解决为“良好”模式，但我们推测，糟糕的政策选择可能会导致长时间的多式联运。我们认为，多模式性是在宏观金融中介模型中自然产生的，偶尔会有约束性的财务约束。