This article investigates the emergence and puzzling termination of the Turkish–Israeli alliance (1996–2011). While a litany of studies has offered changing material circumstances, the conservative agenda of Turkey's AKP government, and other exogenous factors as possible explanations, these fail to capture the complexity of the situation. Instead, this article applies a modified neoclassical realist framework of analysis that longitudinally recontextualizes the alliance. Specifically, in both its inception and collapse, Turkey's elite decision-makers faced no apparent external threats and were free to pursue their favored foreign policy. Domestically, however, Turkey's elite structure was decisive. In the 1990s, the old elite used their institutional power to restrain emerging elites and used their alliance with Israel as a pretext to do so. A decade later, a new elite seized institutional power. No longer restrained domestically, and absent external enemies, the new elites targeted Israel as a menace to win further domestic support, but this eventuated in a series of events that led to the termination of the alliance. Overall, the article concludes that alliance policy can become erratic at the intersection of permissive international environments and elite-induced domestic conflicts.

中文翻译：

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精英变革与土耳其-以色列联盟的成立、持续和消亡

本文调查土耳其-以色列联盟（1996-2011）的出现和令人费解的终止。虽然一连串的研究提供了不断变化的物质环境、土耳其正义与发展党政府的保守议程以及其他外部因素作为可能的解释，但这些都未能捕捉到局势的复杂性。相反，本文应用了一个修改后的新古典现实主义分析框架，该框架纵向重新定位了联盟。具体来说，土耳其的精英决策者在其成立和崩溃期间都没有面临明显的外部威胁，并且可以自由地奉行他们喜欢的外交政策。然而，在国内，土耳其的精英结构是决定性的。在 1990 年代，旧精英利用他们的制度力量来约束新兴精英，并以他们与以色列的联盟为借口这样做。十年后，新的精英掌握了机构权力。新精英不再在国内克制，也没有外部敌人，将以色列作为威胁，以赢得进一步的国内支持，但这最终导致了导致联盟终止的一系列事件。总体而言，本文得出的结论是，在宽松的国际环境和精英引发的国内冲突的交叉点上，联盟政策可能会变得不稳定。但这最终导致了导致联盟终止的一系列事件。总体而言，本文得出的结论是，在宽松的国际环境和精英引发的国内冲突的交叉点上，联盟政策可能会变得不稳定。但这最终导致了导致联盟终止的一系列事件。总体而言，本文得出的结论是，在宽松的国际环境和精英引发的国内冲突的交叉点上，联盟政策可能会变得不稳定。