How much weight do voters place on foreign policy when deciding between electoral candidates? In traditional surveys in Pakistan, the vast majority of respondents identify India as an enemy and threat to Pakistan. What these studies do not assess is whether these beliefs affect voter preferences. Using a conjoint survey experiment conducted among 1,990 respondents in Pakistan, we find that respondents punish hypothetical politicians who advocate a friendly policy toward India, but only modestly. Candidate attitudes toward India were the least meaningful characteristic for voter choice among five characteristics tested, suggesting that attitudinal measurements of salience poorly predict candidate preference. Subgroup results are also instructive: younger and more educated respondents and those from Pakistan's largest province of Punjab were less likely to punish dovish politicians. We discuss implications of these findings and outline avenues for future research.

中文翻译：

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选民与外交政策：来自巴基斯坦联合实验的证据

在选举候选人之间做出决定时，选民对外交政策的重视程度如何？在巴基斯坦的传统调查中，绝大多数受访者认为印度是巴基斯坦的敌人和威胁。这些研究没有评估的是这些信念是否会影响选民的偏好。使用在巴基斯坦 1,990 名受访者中进行的一项联合调查实验，我们发现受访者会惩罚那些主张对印度采取友好政策的假想政治家，但只是适度地惩罚。在测试的五个特征中，候选人对印度的态度是选民选择最没有意义的特征，这表明对显着性的态度测量很难预测候选人的偏好。分组结果也具有启发意义：更年轻、受教育程度更高的受访者以及来自巴基斯坦的受访者 最大的旁遮普省不太可能惩罚鸽派政客。我们讨论了这些发现的含义，并概述了未来研究的途径。