This research note reports views on nuclear deterrence, coercion, and non-use norms from surveys of 320 current and former US national security officials and 1,303 US-based international relations scholars. It finds that both groups hold relatively optimistic views on these key issues. Majorities express confidence that nuclear weapons are useful for deterrence, but are skeptical that a nuclear arsenal can translate into coercive foreign policy success. Respondents are also confident that the nuclear taboo constrains countries from using nuclear weapons in a first strike, but the intensity varies by the country in question. Although limited, the results demonstrate overlap between academics and policymakers on key nuclear concepts. To the extent that experts hold these topline nuclear views that can influence their decision-making, teaching, and research. The results also point to a common tension in thinking about deterrence against conventional attack and norms constraining nuclear first use.

中文翻译：

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疯狂与禁忌：美国专家对核威慑、胁迫和不使用规范的看法

本研究报告报告了对 320 名现任和前任美国国家安全官员和 1,303 名美国国际关系学者的调查对核威慑、胁迫和不使用规范的看法。研究发现，这两个群体对这些关键问题都持有相对乐观的看法。大多数人表示相信核武器对威慑有用，但对核武库能否转化为强制性外交政策的成功持怀疑态度。受访者还相信，核禁忌会限制各国在第一次打击中使用核武器，但强度因有关国家而异。虽然有限，但结果表明学术界和政策制定者在关键核概念上存在重叠。如果专家持有这些可以影响他们的决策、教学、和研究。结果还表明，在考虑对常规攻击的威慑和限制首先使用核武器的规范方面存在一种普遍的紧张关系。