ABSTRACT

The potential (predictive) distribution modelling is a forecasting tool for species distribution, using occurrence records and correlating them with the interaction of algorithms and environmental variables. Aculus schlechtendali (Nalepa) is a phytophagous mite of economic importance, associated with losses in apple trees. The present study aimed to predict the potential distribution of A. schlechtendali in southern Brazil. Available information on species occurrence in Brazil was compiled in the database of previous reports and additional data from the Laboratory of Acarology – Univates. The MaxEnt algorithm and bioclimatic variables (from Bio1 to Bio19) were used to limit the predictive model. Current records of A. schlechtendali have indicated that it is present in 17 sites, among the states of Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, and Paraná; the major producers of apple in Brazil. The most significant bioclimatic variables evaluated were Mean Temperature of the Coldest Quarter (Bio11) and Annual Mean Temperature (Bio1). Using the modelling tool, areas with environmental suitability for this mite were predicted and established in southern Brazil. These results benefit apple agricultural chain, guiding the farmers in mite management, seeking mechanisms to prevent the establishment of this species in the areas indicated as suitable for their occupation.

抽象的

潜在（预测）分布模型是物种分布的预测工具，它使用发生记录并将它们与算法和环境变量的相互作用相关联。schlechtendali（Nalepa）是一种具有经济重要性的植食性螨，与苹果树的损失有关。本研究旨在预测巴西南部的A. schlechtendali的潜在分布。有关巴西物种发生的可用信息已汇总在以前报告的数据库中，以及来自大学昆虫学实验室的其他数据。MaxEnt算法和生物气候变量（从Bio1到Bio19）用于限制预测模型。schlechtendali的最新记录表明，它存在于南里奥格兰德州，圣卡塔琳娜州和巴拉那州等17个地区。巴西苹果的主要生产国。评估的最重要的生物气候变量是最冷季的平均温度（Bio11）和年平均温度（Bio1）。使用建模工具，预测并在巴西南部建立了适合该螨的环境适宜区域。这些结果有利于苹果农业链，指导农民进行螨虫管理，寻求机制来防止在适合其居住的地区建立该物种。