ABSTRACT

Moko is a disease produced by the Ralstonia solanacearum philotype II race 2 bacteria, which has caused great economic losses and currently continues without adequate management. Therefore, the use of quantitative methods based on mathematical simulation models has gained importance in devising effective control programmes and interpreting epidemiological patterns. For this reason, appropriate prevention strategies for the incidence of banana Moko disease were evaluated, using a model of population simulation with nonlinear ordinary differential equations varying disease prevention scenarios with a population of susceptible and infected plants over time. The behaviour of banana Moko disease was plotted on a farm in the initial state of infection, considering $\left(f\right)$ the proportion of the prevention strategies used and the elimination of infected plants$\left(g\right)$, observing that when it is implemented $\left(g\right)$ the threshold value will be lower and the disease tends to be controlled, whereas when $\left(f\right)$ is implemented the threshold value is high and the disease persists over time. This effect of $\left(f\right)$ and $\left(g\right)$ was corroborated by the sensitivity analysis, which showed that the parameter that most influences the threshold value is $\left(g\right).$ However, to decrease production costs due to the high implementation of prevention strategies, different scenarios are shown that favour the control of the disease and decrease these costs.

摘要

Moko是由Ralstonia solanacearum II型第2种种族细菌产生的疾病，已造成巨大的经济损失，目前仍在没有适当管理的情况下继续存在。因此，基于数学模拟模型的定量方法的使用在设计有效的控制程序和解释流行病学模式方面已变得越来越重要。由于这个原因，使用种群模拟模型和非线性常微分方程来评估香蕉Moko病发病率的适当预防策略，该模型具有随时间变化的易感和受感染植物种群的疾病预防方案。考虑到感染初期，在农场上绘制了香蕉Moko病的行为图，考虑到$（F）$ 采取的预防策略所占的比例和消除受感染植物的比例$（G）$，观察它何时实施 $（G）$ 阈值将较低，疾病易于控制，而当 $（F）$如果实施该阈值很高，并且该疾病会随着时间的流逝而持续存在。这个效果$（F）$ 和 $（G）$ 灵敏度分析证实了这一点，该分析表明，对阈值影响最大的参数是 $（G）。$ 然而，为了降低由于预防策略的高度实施而产生的生产成本，显示了有利于控制疾病并降低这些成本的不同情况。