Large‐scale connection to deadly Indian heatwaves,Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society

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Large‐scale connection to deadly Indian heatwaves
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society ( IF 3.0 ) Pub Date : 2021-01-29 , DOI: 10.1002/qj.3985
V. Brahmananda Rao ₁ , K. Koteswara Rao ₂ , B. Mahendranath ₃ , T. V. Lakshmi Kumar ₄ , D. Govardhan ₅

Affiliation

In the present study, we analyse large‐scale connections to deadly heatwaves in India in spring. Deadly Indian heatwaves occur in the spring months of April and May, and are increasing in recent years. These events are associated with the amplification of planetary Rossby waves. This amplification is called quasi‐resonant amplification (QRA). An increase of amplitude or resonance occurs when stationary and moving waves coincide in their size. Previous studies stressed QRA's role in summer because persistent extreme weather events such as the 2003 European heatwave, the 2010 Pakistan flood, Russian heatwave, the 2011 Texas and Oklahoma heat waves, and drought occurred in summer. QRA seems to be related to the amplification of Arctic warming in winter and summer, but observations show that Arctic warming occurs in spring also. The novel aspect of our study is that we found strong evidence for QRA in the boreal spring, the season of Indian heatwaves. Amplified Arctic warming or Arctic amplification thought to be responsible for QRA occurs in spring also. Our results confirm that maximum surface temperatures in spring over India show predictability with high statistical significance, about 4 days ahead. Maximum surface temperatures can be used to predict heatwaves, as shown earlier by some authors.

中文翻译：

与致命的印度热浪的大规模联系

在本研究中，我们分析了与春季印度致命热浪的大规模联系。致命的印度热浪发生在4月和5月的春季，并在近年来增加。这些事件与行星罗斯比波的放大有关。这种放大称为准谐振放大（QRA）。当静止波和运动波的大小一致时，振幅或共振会增加。先前的研究强调了QRA在夏季的作用，因为持续的极端天气事件（例如2003年欧洲热浪，2010年巴基斯坦洪水，俄罗斯热浪，2011年德克萨斯州和俄克拉荷马州热浪以及干旱发生在夏季）。QRA似乎与冬季和夏季北极变暖的加剧有关，但观察表明，北极变暖也在春季发生。我们研究的新颖之处在于，在印度春季热浪季节的北方春季，我们找到了QRA的有力证据。被认为是QRA的原因的北极增暖或北极放大也发生在春季。我们的结果证实，印度春季春季的最高表面温度显示出可预测性，具有很高的统计意义，大约提前4天。如一些作者之前所述，最高表面温度可用于预测热浪。

更新日期：2021-03-07

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