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Hydropower dams, river drought and health effects: A detection and attribution study in the lower Mekong Delta Region
Climate Risk Management ( IF 4.8 ) Pub Date : 2021-01-29 , DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2021.100280
Dung Phung , Thong Nguyen-Huy , Ngoc Nguyen Tran , Dang Ngoc Tran , Van Quang Doan , Son Nghiem , Nga Huy Nguyen , Trung Hieu Nguyen , Trude Bennett

The upstream construction of hydropower dams may drastically intensify climate change impacts due to changing the natural river flood-drought cycle and reducing the amount of water that flows into the lower Mekong Delta river, leading to hydrological and environmental health impacts. However, until now the influence of drought on residents’ health in the lower MDR, where river drought is highly sensitive to recently built hydropower plants, has not been examined. The objectives of this study are, for the first time, to detect the health impacts of river drought on residents and to evaluate the contribution of hydropower dams to the impacts of drought on health in the lower Mekong Delta Region (MDR). We applied the multi-step approaches of a Detection and Attribution study. First, we detected the effects of the river drought on the risk of hospitalization using a Multivariable Fractional Polynomials algorithm (MFP). Second, we linked the long-term changes of the river water level (RWL) to the operation of the first hydropower dam in the upper MDR using the interrupted time-series model (ITS). Finally, we quantified the hospitalizations and related economic loss attributed to the river drought. The results show that the percentage changes in risk of all-cause, respiratory, and renal hospitalizations attributed to the river drought were 2%, 2%, and 7%. There were significant reductions in average level and trend of the RWL during the post-1995 period, when the first hydropower dam began operation in the upper MDR, even though the cumulative rainfall in the MDR had not changed. The all-cause hospitalizations attributed to the river drought were 1134 cases during the period 1995–2014, which resulted in total additional cost at two provincial hospitals of US $360,385. This current study demonstrates the link between hydropower dams, river drought, and health impacts. As the MDR is highly vulnerable to climate change, these findings about the devastating impacts of hydropower dams and environmental change have important implications for the lives of downstream residents.



中文翻译:

水电大坝,河流干旱与健康影响:湄公河下游地区的探测与归因研究

由于改变了自然河道的洪水干旱周期并减少了流入湄公河三角洲下游的水量,水电大坝的上游建设可能会大大加剧气候变化的影响,从而对水文和环境健康造成影响。但是,到目前为止,尚未研究干旱对下游耐多药地区居民健康的影响,因为那里的河流干旱对最近修建的水电站高度敏感。这项研究的目的是首次发现河水干旱对居民的健康影响,并评估水电大坝对湄公河下游地区(MDR)干旱对健康的影响的贡献。我们应用了检测和归因研究的多步骤方法。第一,我们使用多元分数多项式算法(MFP)检测了河流干旱对住院风险的影响。其次,我们使用中断时间序列模型(ITS)将河流水位(RWL)的长期变化与上游MDR中的第一个水坝的运行联系起来。最后,我们量化了由于干旱造成的住院和相关的经济损失。结果表明,河流干旱引起的全因,呼吸和肾脏住院风险的百分比变化是2%,2%和7%。1995年以后,即使MDR的累积降雨量没有变化,当第一个水电大坝在MDR上游开始运营时,RWL的平均水平和趋势也显着降低。1995-2014年期间,因河水干旱而导致的全因住院治疗为1134例,这导致两家省级医院的总额外费用为360,385美元。这项当前的研究表明了水电大坝,河流干旱和健康影响之间的联系。由于耐多药结核病极易受到气候变化的影响,因此有关水电大坝和环境变化的破坏性影响的这些发现对下游居民的生活具有重要意义。

更新日期:2021-02-03
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