The Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) metropolitan area is one of the fastest growing areas in the U.S. As the urbanization process continues in DFW, existing greenfields are being developed and more developments appear near floodplains. This research examines the relationships between existing vacant land and the urbanization process by analyzing the land cover change between 2011 and 2016 in and around current floodplains in the DFW metro area. The major focus lies in three questions: 1) are flood-prone areas in DFW more likely to experience new development? 2) does existing vacant land in flood-prone areas bring new development activities? and 3) is the urbanization process associated with neighborhood change? Three logistic regression models were constructed to examine if existing vacant land can predict new development activities – with subgroups of different neighborhood socioeconomic status and by the level of flood hazard exposure. The results suggest that, in the DFW area, floodable areas are experiencing more development, and existing vacancies are a trigger only when vacancies are not clustered and when flood exposure is low. A heterogeneous pattern across different neighborhood profiles was found as areas with high flood exposure are likely to experience more large-scale development activities only for the low-income groups. This study suggests city planners pay attention to citywide vacant properties as they could either predict or detour potential developments. At the same time, areas with a close proximity to floodplains require more attention for the neighborhood socioeconomic status than existing vacant land uses.

达拉斯-沃思堡（DFW）大都市地区是美国增长最快的地区之一。随着DFW的城市化进程不断发展，现有的绿地正在开发，并且洪泛区附近出现了更多的发展。这项研究通过分析DFW都市区当前洪泛区及其周边地区2011年至2016年之间的土地覆盖变化，研究了现有闲置土地与城市化过程之间的关系。主要重点在于三个问题：1）DFW中容易发生洪水的地区是否更有可能经历新的发展？2）洪灾多发地区的现有空置土地是否带来新的开发活动？3）城市化过程是否与邻里变化相关？构建了三个逻辑回归模型，以检验现有的空置土地是否可以预测新的开发活动-具有不同邻里社会经济状况的亚组以及洪水危害暴露的水平。结果表明，在DFW地区，可洪泛滥地区正在发展，只有当空缺没有聚集且洪水泛滥程度低时，现有的空缺才是触发因素。由于洪水泛滥的地区可能仅针对低收入群体才有可能经历更多的大规模发展活动，因此发现了不同邻里分布的异质模式。这项研究表明，城市规划者应注意整个城市的空置物业，因为它们可能预测或绕开潜在的发展。同时，与洪泛平原非常接近的地区比起现有的闲置土地用途，对邻里的社会经济地位需要更多的关注。