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Time-series trend analysis and farmer perceptions of rainfall and temperature in northwestern Ethiopia
Environment, Development and Sustainability ( IF 4.7 ) Pub Date : 2021-01-29 , DOI: 10.1007/s10668-020-01192-0
Mequannt Marie , Fikadu Yirga , Mebrahtu Haile , Shaghayegh Ehteshammajd , Hossein Azadi , Jürgen Scheffran

Smallholder farmers are the most vulnerable community to climate change in Ethiopia since they rely heavily on the subsistence rain-fed farming system. Thus, better climate change adaptation strategies need to be identified and implemented. This study aimed at identifying the farmers’ perceptions of climate change and time series trend analysis of precipitation and temperature in northern Gondar Zuria District, Ethiopia. Data were gathered using a questionnaire from the institutional, socio-economic, and bio-physical situation of the 121 sample households. The survey data were analyzed using SPSS software version 21, XLSTAT software, and excel spreadsheets. The climate change trend analysis was conducted using monthly precipitation, which has been downloaded from free online resources such as Global Precipitation. The temperature data were collected using the Climate Centre and Climate Research Unit with 0.5 by 0.5 degree resolutions from 1980 to 2013. The climate variable data have been analyzed using a precipitation concentration index, anomaly index, coefficient of variation, simple linear regression, and Mann–Kendall test. The result revealed that for the main rain season (summer), a statistically insignificant decreasing trend was obtained. In the Belg season, there was a growing trend of precipitation. The max monthly and annual temperatures have increased significantly over time. However, the min temperature trend shows a non-significant increasing trend over the 1980–2013 periods. The recorded monthly precipitation and temperature data trend analysis were similar to the farmers’ perceptions of changes in temperature and rainfall over the past 30 years. Therefore, we recommend possible adaptation strategies designed for climate change. Particularly, countries whose economy is dependent on rain-fed agriculture should pay attention to the increasing trend of temperature and the decreasing and unreliable nature of rainfall.



中文翻译:

埃塞俄比亚西北部的时间序列趋势分析和农民对降雨和温度的感知

小农是埃塞俄比亚最容易受到气候变化影响的社区,因为他们严重依赖自给自足的雨养农业系统。因此,需要确定和实施更好的气候变化适应战略。本研究旨在确定埃塞俄比亚北部贡达祖里亚地区北部农民对气候变化的认识以及降水和温度的时间序列趋势分析。使用调查表从121个样本家庭的制度,社会经济和生物物理状况中收集数据。使用SPSS 21版软件,XLSTAT软件和excel电子表格分析调查数据。气候变化趋势分析是使用月降水量进行的,月降水量可从全球降水等免费在线资源下载。1980年至2013年,使用气候中心和气候研究部门以0.5 x 0.5度的分辨率收集了温度数据。已使用降水浓度指数,异常指数,变异系数,简单线性回归和Mann对气候变量数据进行了分析。 –Kendall测试。结果表明,在主雨季(夏季),下降趋势没有统计学意义。在Belg季节,降雨有增长的趋势。随着时间的推移,每月和每年的最高温度已显着增加。但是,最低温度趋势在1980-2013年期间显示出不显着的增长趋势。记录的每月降水量和温度数据趋势分析与过去30年农民对温度和降水量变化的看法相似。因此,我们建议针对气候变化而设计的可能的适应策略。特别是,经济依赖雨养农业的国家应注意温度升高的趋势以及降雨的减少和不可靠的性质。

更新日期:2021-01-29
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