As part of the first author's expert testimony at a court trial, we investigated hindsight bias in perceptions of the predictability of a real flash flood. Participants were presented with pictures taken before the flash flood and asked to rate the muddiness of the water and judge the likelihood of flooding in Experiment 1. Participants who were informed that a flash flood had occurred perceived the river as muddier and judged a flood to be more likely than control participants. Their judgment was biased by hindsight. The results of Experiment 2 revealed that when the causality from muddiness to flooding was instructed, participants judged the river as muddier. These results were interpreted as top‐down perception being implicitly adjusted by outcome information and causality information. The judges decided that the defendants had no responsibility to predict the flash flood, taking the hindsight bias into consideration.

中文翻译：

---

对山洪可预测性的判断中的后见偏见：一项针对法庭审判和法律决策的证词的实验研究

作为第一位作者在法庭审判中的专家作证的一部分，我们调查了对真实山洪可预测性的看法中的后见偏见。向参与者展示了在山洪暴发之前拍摄的照片，并要求他们评估水的浑浊程度，并在实验1中判断洪水的可能性。被告知发生山洪暴发的参与者将河水视为泥泞，并判断洪灾为洪水。比控制参与者更有可能。他们的判断由于事后的见识而有偏差。实验2的结果表明，在指示从浑浊到洪水的因果关系时，参与者将河流判断为浑浊。这些结果被解释为由结果信息和因果关系信息隐式调整的自上而下的感知。