Macroeconomic costs of conflict are generally very large, with GDP per capita about 28 percent lower ten years after conflict onset. This is overwhelmingly driven by private consumption, which falls by almost 25 percent ten years after conflict onset. Conflict is also associated with dramatic declines in official trade, with exports (imports) estimated to be 58 (34) percent lower ten years after conflict onset. The onset of conflict often also induces significant refugee outflows to neighboring non-advanced countries in the short run, and relatively small but very persistent refugee outflows to advanced countries over the long run. To alleviate reverse causality concerns between GDP and conflict onset, we control for pre-conflict GDP forecasts from the IMF World Economic Outlook and show that similar results are obtained with and without pre-conflict GDP forecasts.

冲突的宏观经济代价通常很大，冲突发生十年后，人均国内生产总值降低了约28％。这在很大程度上由私人消费驱动，私人消费在冲突爆发十年后下降了近25％。冲突还与官方贸易的急剧下降有关，据估计，冲突发生十年后，出口（进口）下降了58％（34％）。从短期来看，冲突的爆发通常还导致大量难民流向邻近的非先进国家，从长期来看，相对较小但非常持久的难民流向发达国家。为了减轻GDP与冲突发作之间因果关系的反向担忧，我们控制了IMF从《世界经济展望》中得出的冲突前GDP预测 并显示在有和没有冲突前GDP预测的情况下也可获得类似的结果。