Biogas currently plays an important role in the German energy mix - mainly as a way to produce electricity; but will this still be the case in 2050? This paper addresses this question by studying the system’s future to better understand the next actions it should take in the present. It aims to determine the key influential factors in the evolution of the biogas system with the goal of understanding its integration in the wider energy systems of 2050. A sequential, mixed and multidisciplinary system method was used based on the methodology of la prospective: a common methodology for future research and scenario planning. These key influential factors have the most links within the biogas system and are both highly dependent and highly influential. Thus they can be strategically managed to influence the system as a whole. The primary finding of the study is that biogas should be more strategically employed in waste and residue management, playing a stronger role in the circular bioeconomy, as opposed to its current role as an electricity generator. Furthermore, the paper identified the factors green jobs creation, flexible small biogas technology innovations and carbon capture and utilization technologies as possible indicators of the evolution of the system. Finally, this study shows that the applied methodology is a sound way of determining how a complex system may be assessed and identifies the factors that can influence its development towards more complex solutions.

目前，沼气在德国的能源结构中发挥着重要作用-主要是作为发电的一种方式；但是，到2050年，情况仍会如此吗？本文通过研究系统的未来来更好地理解当前应该采取的下一步行动，从而解决了这个问题。其目的是确定沼气系统发展的关键影响因素，以期了解其在2050年更广泛的能源系统中的整合。基于前瞻性方法，采用了序贯，混合和多学科的系统方法：用于未来研究和方案规划的通用方法。这些关键的影响因素在沼气系统中具有最多的联系，并且高度依赖且影响很大。因此，可以从战略上管理它们以影响整个系统。该研究的主要发现是，沼气应在废物和残留物管理中更具策略性地使用，在循环生物经济中发挥更大的作用，与其目前作为发电机的作用相反。此外，本文确定了创造绿色就业机会，灵活的小型沼气技术创新以及碳捕集和利用技术的因素。作为系统发展的可能指标。最后，这项研究表明，所应用的方法学是确定如何评估复杂系统并确定可能影响其朝着更复杂解决方案发展的因素的合理方法。