ABSTRACT

Rising temperatures in the Arctic can result in thaw of permafrost, with widespread implications for ecosystems and infrastructure. We analyzed mean annual air and ground temperatures in the eight northernmost national parks in Alaska using data from thirty-three National Park Service climate monitoring stations and eight National Weather Service stations. Mean annual air temperatures (MAATs) from 2014 to 2019 increased in a stepwise fashion relative to the preceding thirty-year period by at least 1°C at all locations in the study area; the increase was near 2°C in Denali National Park and most of the Arctic Alaska parks and 3°C in the far western coastal areas of the Arctic parks. The increase in mean annual ground temperatures (MAGT) was approximately equal to the increase in MAAT in windswept tundra areas with minimal snow, whereas under deeper taiga and alpine snowpacks the increase in MAGT was about half as large as the increase in MAAT. If the warm temperatures observed during 2014 to 2019 persist, there will be widespread degradation of permafrost in portions of these national parks and in similar environments across Alaska.

摘要

北极的温度升高会导致永久冻土融化，对生态系统和基础设施产生广泛影响。我们使用来自33个国家公园管理局气候监测站和8个国家气象服务站的数据，分析了阿拉斯加最北端的八个国家公园的年平均气温和地面温度。在研究区域的所有位置，2014年至2019年的平均年气温（MAAT）相对于前三十年呈逐步增长的方式，至少升高了1°C；在Denali国家公园和大多数北极阿拉斯加公园，温度上升了2°C，而在北极公园的最西端沿海地区，温度上升了3°C。在积雪最少的被风吹拂的苔原地区，年平均地面温度（MAGT）的增加大约等于MAAT的增加，而在较深的针叶林和高山积雪下，MAGT的增加大约是MAAT的一半。如果2014年至2019年期间观测到的温暖温度持续存在，则这些国家公园的部分地区以及阿拉斯加各地类似环境中的永久冻土将广泛退化。