ABSTRACT: In recent years, maize production in South Africa has faced challenges related to climate change which have prompted farmers to adapt their production activities. We assessed factors informing the adaptive decision-making of maize farmers in the Vaal catchment by examining linkages between farmers’ experiences, their perceptions of climate change and the adaptation strategies they use. Data were collected through semi-structured household-level interviews, key informant interviews and focus group discussions. Catchment climate data were also collected to determine key 30 yr trends (1989-2018) and the farmers’ level of awareness about these trends. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, Mann-Kendall (MK) test, Sen’s slope test, climate anomalies and multinomial logit modelling. Results suggest that maize farmers in the catchment are aware of climate change (95%), with many of them referring to it as ‘a shift in climate’. This perceived ‘shift’ is supported by meteorological data, as the MK test confirmed a decreasing inter-annual precipitation trend (-0.149) and a decreasing trend at the onset of the maize planting season (-0.167), with temperature showing an increasing trend (0.470). These trends have inspired the adoption of a range of timing-related responses and other farming and off-farm adaptations. Modelling results revealed farmer perception, farmer typology and the nature of maize production (rainfed) as some of the variables with a deciding influence on the nature of the adaptation employed. The study confirms the importance of understanding intersections between qualitative and quantitative variables in triggering adaptive responses. Current strategies need to be expanded and supplemented to improve resilience and prevent maladaptation.

中文翻译：

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南非瓦尔河流域的气候变化和玉米生产：评估农民的意识，看法和适应战略

摘要：近年来，南非的玉米生产面临与气候变化有关的挑战，这些挑战促使农民适应其生产活动。我们通过检查农民经验，他们对气候变化的看法以及他们使用的适应策略之间的联系，评估了有助于Vaal流域玉米农民做出自适应决策的因素。数据是通过半结构化的家庭访问，关键知情访问和焦点小组讨论收集的。还收集了集水区气候数据，以确定30年的主要趋势（1989-2018年）以及农民对这些趋势的认识水平。使用描述性统计，Mann-Kendall（MK）检验，Sen斜率检验，气候异常和多项式logit建模对数据进行了分析。结果表明，该流域的玉米农民了解气候变化（95％），其中许多人将其称为“气候变化”。MK试验证实了年际降水趋势（-0.149）下降和玉米种植季节开始时（-0.167）的下降趋势，而气温显示出上升的趋势，这是气象数据所支持的（0.470）。这些趋势促使人们采取了一系列与时间相关的应对措施，并采取了其他农业和非农业适应措施。建模结果揭示了农民的看法，农民的类型和玉米产量（已雨水）的性质，这是对所采用适应性的决定性影响的一些变量。这项研究证实了理解定性和定量变量之间的交集在触发自适应反应中的重要性。当前的策略需要扩展和补充，以提高适应力并防止适应不良。