ABSTRACT: Decadal climate variability (DCV) phenomena are ocean-based conditions that have climate influences persisting for a decade or more. Few studies have addressed the coupled agricultural and economic implications of these phenomena. Here, we investigate the economic value of DCV information in a South Central Texas case study along with the nature of possible adaptations to the information. To do this we first perform an econometric estimation of DCV impacts on regional crop yields and groundwater recharge. We then expand a regional economic and hydrological model to include DCV information. We find significant DCV impacts on regional aquifer recharge and crop yields for oats, dryland sorghum, and irrigated winter wheat. DCV information has substantial value with perfect information ranging from US$3.79-3.93 million yr^-1 plus benefits for springflow protection, while a less perfect forecast is worth $1.47-1.89 million yr^-1. We also find DCV adaptations involve changes in crop mix and water use.

中文翻译：

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年代际气候变率，水的可获得性和耕作：德克萨斯州中南部的预报信息的价值

摘要：年代际气候变率（DCV）现象是海洋性条件，其气候影响持续了十年或更长时间。很少有研究解决这些现象对农业和经济的影响。在这里，我们将在德克萨斯州中南部的一个案例研究中调查DCV信息的经济价值，以及对该信息可能做出的调整的性质。为此，我们首先对DCV对区域农作物产量和地下水补给的影响进行计量经济学估算。然后，我们扩展区域经济和水文模型以包含DCV信息。我们发现DCV对燕麦，旱地高粱和灌溉冬小麦的区域含水层补给和作物单产有重大影响。DCV信息具有可观的价值，其完善的信息范围在379万至393万美元之间^-1加上弹簧流保护的好处，而不太理想的预测价值147.189百万美元^-1。我们还发现，DCV的调整涉及作物混合和用水的变化。