Anthropogenic climate forcing will cause the global mean sea level to rise over the 21st century. However, regional sea level is expected to vary across ocean basins, superimposed by the influence of natural internal climate variability. Here, we address the detection of dynamic sea level (DSL) changes by combining the perspectives of a single and a multimodel ensemble approach (the 50-member CanESM5 and a 27-model ensemble, respectively, all retrieved from the CMIP6 archive), under three CMIP6 projected scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5. The ensemble analysis takes into account four key metrics: signal (S), noise (N), S/N ratio, and time of emergence (ToE). The results from both sets of ensembles agree in the fact that regions with higher S/N (associated with smaller uncertainties) also reflect earlier ToEs. The DSL signal is projected to emerge in the Southern Ocean, Southeast Pacific, Northwest Atlantic, and the Arctic. Results common for both sets of ensemble simulations show that while S progressively increases with increased projected emissions, N, in turn, does not vary substantially among the SSPs, suggesting that uncertainty arising from internal climate variability has little dependence on changes in the magnitude of external forcing. Projected changes are greater and quite similar for the scenarios SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 and considerably smaller for the SSP1-2.6, highlighting the importance of public policies towards lower emission scenarios and of keeping emissions below a certain threshold.

人为的气候强迫将导致21世纪全球平均海平面上升。但是，由于自然内部气候变化的影响，预计整个海盆的区域海平面会有所不同。在这里，我们通过组合单一模型和多模型集成方法（分别从50个成员的CanESM5和27个模型集成，分别从CMIP6档案库中检索）的观点来解决动态海平面（DSL）变化的检测问题。三种CMIP6预计方案：SSP1-2.6，SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5。集成分析考虑了四个关键指标：信号（S），噪声（N），信噪比和出现时间（ToE）。两组集合的结果都一致，因为具有较高S / N（与较小不确定性相关）的区域也反映了较早的ToE。DSL信号预计会出现在南大洋，东南太平洋，西北大西洋和北极地区。两组综合模拟的共同结果表明，尽管S随着预计排放量的增加而逐渐增加，但SSP之间的N却没有实质性的变化，这表明由内部气候变化引起的不确定性几乎不依赖于外部气候强度的变化。强迫。对于SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5方案，预计的变化更大且非常相似，而对于SSP1-2.6的方案，变化则较小，突出了公共政策对降低排放方案和将排放保持在一定阈值以下的重要性。两组总体模拟的共同结果表明，尽管S随着预计排放量的增加而逐渐增加，但SSP之间的N却没有实质性的变化，这表明由内部气候变化引起的不确定性几乎不依赖于外部气候强度的变化。强迫。对于SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5方案，预计的变化更大且非常相似，而对于SSP1-2.6的方案，变化则较小，突出了公共政策对降低排放方案和将排放保持在一定阈值以下的重要性。两组总体模拟的共同结果表明，尽管S随着预计排放量的增加而逐渐增加，但SSP之间的N却没有实质性的变化，这表明由内部气候变化引起的不确定性几乎不依赖于外部气候强度的变化。强迫。对于SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5方案，预计的变化更大且非常相似，而对于SSP1-2.6的方案，变化则较小，突出了公共政策对降低排放方案和将排放保持在一定阈值以下的重要性。