An optimization model for designing a resilient biomass to energy system is applied to study commercial scale ethanol production. Uncertainty in biomass availability due to drought is calculated using historical rainfall data. The probability of drought is region-specific, whereas the magnitude of loss is specific to the feedstock. The supply system includes collection sites, Regional Biomass Pre-processing Depots (RBPD), and biorefineries. The design decisions include locations and capacities of biorefineries and RPBDs, while the operational decisions include feedstock selection and material flow. The probability-weighted expected cost of production is minimized considering ideal and disruption scenarios. The problem is solved for the state of Maharashtra in India with 33 districts and five types of biomass. The results show up to 4.1% benefit due to the proposed approach over a conventional approach that ignores drought. Crop specific scenarios showed that drought affected the facility locations, capacities as well as procurement strategies.

用于设计弹性生物质能系统的优化模型被用于研究商业规模的乙醇生产。使用历史降雨数据计算干旱导致的生物量可利用性的不确定性。干旱的可能性因地区而异，而损失的幅度则取决于原料。供应系统包括收集地点，区域生物质预处理库（RBPD）和生物精炼厂。设计决策包括生物精炼厂和RPBD的位置和容量，而运营决策包括原料选择和物料流。考虑到理想和中断情况，将概率加权的预期生产成本降至最低。印度拥有33个地区和五种生物质的马哈拉施特拉邦州的问题已得到解决。结果显示最多为4。与不考虑干旱的常规方法相比，该方法带来的收益为1％。针对作物的具体情况表明，干旱影响了设施的地点，能力以及采购策略。